My Kinder, Gentler 2023 Oscar post

 

They're doing it again this coming Sunday.

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will hand out their Oscars for the 95th time.  I'm only 63 myself, but sometimes it feels like I've been watching this awards show for all of the last 95 years. And with each subsequent awards presentation, I get a little less invested in it. As I wrote in 2022: "With every passing year, it becomes more obvious to me that these awards have only an ephemeral and tenuous connection to enduring artistic achievement."

In recent years, the tone of my Oscar posts has become increasingly bitchy and snarky. But I no longer have it in me to be a crab-ass about an event that, as previously noted, has "only an ephemeral and tenuous connection to enduring artistic achievement." No virtue signaling intended here, but with all the the truly terrible things happening in the world right now, I don’t have the energy to get pissy about a well-intentioned (if messy and incoherent) action comedy winning Oscars it probably doesn't deserve. I’d rather save my indignation for people who truly deserve it, like (insert name of any far right lunatic politician here.)

What follows are my kinder, gentler observations as to who/what WILL win, who/what SHOULD win (IMHO) and who/what was tragically overlooked in the nominations.

Best Supporting Actress

Will win: Jamie Lee Curtis for Everything Everywhere All at Once

She's already scored a SAG award for her role as the frumpy, menacing IRS agent who relentlessly stalks Michelle Yeoh throughout Everything, Everywhere... And she's a much loved performer whose unbridled enthusiasm for her co-stars' many award wins has been a happy highlight of the awards broadcasts. It's probably a bit churlish of me to say that her wig, bad clothes and fat padding here do at least half of the acting for her, but. I'm saying it anyway 'cause it's true..  Make no mistake, I'm a Jamie Lee fan, and she does have a lot of fun with this role. But I'd like to gently suggest that it really isn't an Oscar-caliber performance. (I actually thought she was more impressive as the traumatized, middle-aged Laurie Strode of the 2018 Halloween reboot.)

Should Win: Kerry Condon for The Banshees of Inisherin

A Kerry Condon upset in this category is not entirely out of the question; she won the BAFTA and quite a few critics' awards. But as much as I loved her fine work in Banshees, I'm not sure even she can stop the tsunami of awards love for Everything Everywhere All at Once. As Colin Farrell's wise, frequently exasperated sister, she provided the common sense ballast needed to ground the film's dark absurdity. Hers was a delicate, funny and very accomplished performance.

Overlooked: Keke Palmer for Nope

From the minute Keke Palmer showed up in Jordan Peele's sci-fi/horror fantasy, I remember thinking "She's going to get an Oscar for this!" Palmer was hilarious with a 'light up the screen' kind of charisma you couldn't take your eyes off. Yet, here we are in 2023, and no one's even talking about Nope - or Palmer's wonderful performance in it - anymore. And that's a shame. The film itself was flawed and understandably has fallen out of the conversation, but Palmer should have been remembered and honored.

Also overlooked: Nina Hoss for Tar

Playing Cate Blanchett's long-suffering partner in Tar, Hoss raised the art of 'subtle changes in facial expression that speak volumes' to a new and dizzying height of artistry." With one raised eyebrow or quiet double-take, she communicated everything we needed to know about the dynamics of their relationship. Hoss' performance, unfortunately, is the kind of powerful but understated work that rarely gets noticed at awards time.

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All at Once

Oscar loves a comeback kid, and this year they'll honor the former child actor (The Goonies, Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom) who, after years of scrounging for work, landed a great role in the year's most honored film. It's a fine enough performance which nicely balances that of his co-star, Michelle Yeoh, but far from my first choice in this category. However, I won't begrudge him his hard-earned moment of triumph. Expect unbridled joy to erupt in the auditorium when Quan comes onstage to accept his Oscar.

Should Win: Barry Keoghan for The Banshees of Inisherin

Truth be told, I'd be nearly as happy with a Brendan Gleeson win in this category, although that's even less likely to happen. Keoghan won the BAFTA, so there's a tiny glimmer of hope for an upset here. His gentle, daft Dominick - the would-be suitor of Kerry Condon's character - is beautifully modulated, ultimately tragic portrayal. Keoghan excels at playing oddballs (for a more disturbing performance in this vein, watch his unnerving performance in The Killing of a Sacred Deer). His character in Banshees is similarly off-kilter, but with added nuances of innocence and silliness; it's a deceptively complex performance.

Overlooked: No one, really

I don't have any fights to pick with this category. All five of the nominated performances were honorable, and I have great difficulty coming up with another actor who may have been slighted.  See, I'm not ALWAYS a curmudgeon!

Best Actress

Will Win: Michelle Yeoh for Everything Everywhere All at Once

It will be another inspirational and emotional moment when Yeoh comes to the podium Sunday night to accept her Oscar. That outcome is pretty much a foregone conclusion now that she's brought home a Golden Globe, an Independent Spirit award, and a SAG award. I'm happy for her, even if not quite in agreement that she gave the year's best performance. Yeoh gave us some beautiful moments in an otherwise messy and frequently incoherent film and reduced me to tears in her beautifully realized final scenes.  I'm not about to besmirch her upcoming victory.

Should win: Cate Blanchett for Tar

Everything I said about Michelle Yeoh notwithstanding, Blanchett's performance is the towering achievement of the year.  As I noted in my review, Tar is not an audience-friendly film, nor is Blanchett's character one that audiences can take to their hearts. It's a long, talky, intellectually challenging film with an arrogant, predatory protagonist. I totally get why it's not as popular as Everything Everywhere... and that its lack of embraceability is what's hurting Blanchett's Oscar chances. But there is simply no denying that Blanchett is dazzling in the role of Lydia Tar, inhabiting that role so entirely that you don't really notice she's acting.

Overlooked: Florence Pugh for The Wonder

The Wonder is arguably the most undervalued film of the year, and Pugh's stellar performance has been cruelly overlooked in every awards contest so far.  No surprise then that she was omitted from the slate of Oscar nominees, but it's disappointing nonetheless. If you haven't already seen it, please log on to Netflix this week and marvel at Pugh's mesmerizing portrayal of a nurse dispatched to Ireland to observe a girl who hasn't eaten for months, but continues to live and thrive. The locals think it is a divine miracle, but Pugh's cool skepticism cuts through their religiosity.  

Also overlooked: Tilda Swinton for The Eternal Daughter

Swinton delivers a stunning double act, playing both a middle-aged filmmaker and her mother in an ethereal thriller than combines ghost story tropes with an unsparing examination of their relationship. You're barely aware that the same actress is sitting on both sides of the table, so finely etched are details of each women's personality.  Swinton was equally impressive in the too-little-seen, too-little-loved fantasia, Three Thousand Years of Longing.

Best Actor

Will Win: Brendan Fraser for The Whale

This is, by far, the toughest category to call. Pre-Oscar award wins have been pretty evenly divided between Fraser and Austin Butler (Elvis). And Colin Farrell isn't entirely out of the running, although he's probably best considered as dark horse.  I finally settled on Fraser because (as I noted above) Oscar loves a comeback kid.  Fraser's formerly high-profile career faltered for years as the result of both injuries he sustained while making The Mummy films and the fallout from his alleged sexual harassment by the head of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association . Although I didn't much care for The Whale (which was far too focused on the grotesquerie of its lead character's morbid obesity), I greatly admired Fraser's performance and was happy to see him back in the limelight.

Should win: Colin Farrell for The Banshees of Inisherin

I'll be honest: there isn't a single actor nominated in this category whose win would disappoint me. Austin Butler gave a fine and moving performance in the title role of Elvis. Paul Mescal was equally heartbreaking in Aftersun. Bill Nighy's repressed bureaucrat desperately looking for meaning in his final days was the whole reason to see Living. But my heart is with Farrell and his portrayal; of the dim, bewildered Padraic in Martin McDonagh's bleakly funny Banshees. I suspect Farrell's chances here are somewhat hampered by the fact that he and co-star/offscreen buddy Brendan Gleeson have been marketed and celebrated) as more of a double act in this film than they have been as individual performers.  But Farrell has turned in reliably memorable performances for almost two decades now, and a win for him would be akin to a well deserved lifetime achievement award.

Overlooked?

Again, I got nothing. The Oscars were dead-on perfect on their choices for the male acting honors this year.

Best Picture

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Let's face it, this film is unstoppable. It has dominated every major award presentation this year and is headed for Oscar glory. For me personally - a woman prone to shutting down in the wake of sensory overload - just the film’s title provokes anxiety, let alone all the lightning-fast jumping around the multiverse that comprises its plot.  But I've been greatly touched by the exuberant joy of the cast as they've appeared together at the podium of nearly awards show to date; they're a group of actors who played a family and then clearly became like family to each other. That actually feels like something to celebrate rather than malign.

Should Win.... Eh, why even worry about it?

The Everything Everywhere victory is a foregone conclusion, and I've clearly made peace with that. So I'll just quickly toss off my opinion that any of the following films would be better choice for the honor: Tar, The Banshees of Inisherin, All Quiet on the Western Front, The Fablemans, Top Gun Maverick. For the record, I loathed Triangle of Sadness and respected - but was ultimately underwhelmed by - Women Talking. Full disclosure: I have not yet seen Avatar: The Way of Water. For that matter, I still haven't seen the original Avatar which was nominated for Best Picture twelve u years ago.

(There actually are a few experts predicting an upset by All Quiet on the Western Front, which cleaned up at the BAFTA awards last month, taking both Best Picture and Best Foreign Language Film. I don't anticipate a rerun of that at the Oscars, though.)

Overlooked: The Wonder.

See my comments about Best Actress above. Here's part of what I wrote when I gave Sebastian Leilo's eccentric but absorbing drama the number four slot on my year's best list:

Florence Pugh plays an English nurse dispatched to Ireland in the 1840s to observe a young girl who has not eaten for months but continues to live and be healthy. The townspeople are inclined to see this as a divine miracle; Pugh's no-nonsense nurse is not convinced. The story evolves gradually and devastatingly as the layers of truth in the situation are peeled back. Pugh's character is a sort of stand-in for us, the audience; her skepticism and her diligent search for the truth keeps the narrative moving forward.  She's the outsider looking into a entirely different culture. Let me remind you that the English were none too popular with the Irish at this time (or probably at any time). At times it almost seems that Pugh's character was invited there only to be refuted. Or possibly converted.

Director Sebastian Lelio bookends the film with scenes of the soundstages where it was shot. A narrator reminds us that we are about to see is a story and that every character in it has a story that they believe in fully. Even though that turns out to be true, it's a slightly awkward framing. Yet the moment the camera first sweeps in to show us Pugh thoughtfully eating soup in a ship's dining room, we are completely and convincingly transported to the 1840s and drawn into the events of the narrative. It’s a transition that, in the wink of an eye, demonstrates the transformative magic of movies.